The maritime sector is responsible for around 3% of globalCO2 emissions, and the path towards its decarbonisation – aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 – is certainly not without its complexities. To help “accelerate” this path, Eni, together with Fincantieri – a global shipbuilding company – and RINA – a multinational engineering consultancy, certification and inspection group – have produced theOutlook on Sustainable Maritime Transport: a study on the sector, carried out with the technical support of Bain & Company Italia, which is part of the agreement signed in March 2024 by the three companies with the aim of creating a global observatory on the prospects for the evolution of sustainable decarbonisation solutions for the sector in the medium-long term.
Target 2050: More needs to be done
To date, as the study shows, the industry is still predominantly dependent on traditional fuels, which account for 93% of total consumption. The industry, however, is already taking important steps by looking carefully at the use of different sources of propulsion, with the aim of meeting the 2050 targets: in fact, already in 2023, about half of all orders for new ships were for alternative fuels, with a trend towards greater sustainability. And ports are also starting to equip themselves to meet the new requirements, through the development of infrastructures capable of supporting different technological and fuel options.
In the coming years, however, efforts will need to be further amplified, considering that, from a global perspective, we may be facing a decarbonisation pathway at different speeds. The study, in fact, analyses different future scenarios based on different levels of decarbonisation ambition, technological advances and availability of fuels and infrastructure: the forecasts, in this sense, point to faster decarbonisation in the EU and the US, while in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world the use of fossil fuels and LNG will continue to dominate, constituting around 70% of the energy mix by 2050.
From LNG to biofuels
But which energy carriers can reduceCO2 emissions in the short term? The study highlights mainly two: LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), a less carbon-intensive fossil product, which however requires infrastructural investments for storage, warehousing and refuelling in ports; and biofuels such as HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil), which can also be used in purity without infrastructural investments, and FAME, with greater limitations for use in purity.
Looking to the long term, biofuels – also thanks to the entry of BioGNL and Biomethanol – will continue to be the prevailing solution in the merchant segment, just as synthetic fuels produced from green hydrogenand hydrogen itself – for instance for low and medium power cruises – may play an increasingly important role in certain use cases.
EU, a 24 billion transition
In more detail, in the period 2030-2040, Europe and North America will see a major shift from fossil fuels to HVO biofuels – which according to the study will be the first pillar of the transition – and LNG, also in bio form. The former are already available at key ports and offer some cost resilience, while the latter remain an economically competitive solution for the next decade. To reach the 2050 target, however, it will also be necessary to explore new alternative fuels, such as synthetic fuels produced from green hydrogen: these, however, will only be competitive – compared to fossil fuels – from 2040 onwards.
Looking at the numbers, this transition will require very significant investments in ports to adapt the necessary infrastructure for alternative fuels: up to EUR 24 billion in the EU alone, according to estimates. Due to the possibility of exploiting existing infrastructure, HVO biofuels and LNG will have a limited impact – around 15 per cent – while synthetic fuels will have a significant impact (85 per cent) due to the related infrastructure still to be developed.
Eni’s commitment
In the field of biofuels, Eni is one of the most active players. Enilive, Eni’s 70 per cent subsidiary dedicated to sustainable mobility, obtains them mainly from waste raw materials – such as used cooking oil and agro-food industry residues – and the processing takes place through Ecofining, the technology developed together with Honeywell-UOP and already used in the Venice Porto Marghera and Gela biorefineries.
This is how Enilive obtains the hydrogenated biofuel HVO, which is distributed in Enilive Stations as HVOlution.
In addition, work on the conversion of the Livorno refinery into a biorefinery will be completed by 2026, and the conversion of part of the Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi (Pavia) plant is in the approval phase. In addition, there is a stake in the US in the SBR biorefinery in Chalmette – operated by Enilive in a joint venture with PBF Energy – and the current construction of new biorefineries in Malaysia, South Korea.
Just this week, then, Enilive announced that the biofuel HVO diesel for the navy – with which Eni has had a partnership since as far back as 2012 – made from 100% renewable raw materials, is available with direct deliveries from the depot to ships by tanker in the ports of Genoa and Ravenna, and that by the end of the year it plans to make it available for sale in the port of Venice as well. This type of biofuel can immediately contribute to the decarbonisation of maritime transport because it can be used in purity in ships validated for its use, allowing a reduction in emissions along the supply chain of 60% to 90% compared to traditional fossil fuels.A commitment, that of Eni, which highlights what the study shows: it is from the development and diffusion of alternative fuels that the challenge of sustainability in the maritime sector passes. A challenge that, considering the weight of the sector, is unavoidable towards achieving the sustainability objectives defined at a global level.
